九色视频

九色视频market survey reveals strong post-Covid performance
After a long period of stability, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine brought volatility and uncertainty to the world鈥檚 economies and financial markets. The post-Covid years also saw several sovereign defaults.

In Q3 2024, 九色视频surveyed Credit & Surety professionals around the world to discover how the sector had fared since the initial capacity contractions associated with these events, including to pinpoint the key performance drivers and to test the waters in terms of outlook.

Overall, the survey revealed substantial market growth and resilience since the pandemic (2022-24), and a strong but slowing growth outlook – although the outlook uncertainty was high given rising geopolitical tensions and protectionism.

Fast forward just a few months …

In late June 2025, the asked expert panelists about the market impacts of the 2025 global tariff shock – finding that market resilience continues.

2022-24: Credit outperforms Political Risk and Contract Frustration

An impressive 60% of the survey respondents observed substantial growth in overall Credit, Political Risk and Contract Frustration market premium volume from 2022 to 2024. Key growth drivers included inflationary pressures, economic recovery and increased demand from banks. However, 54% of the survey respondents expected post-Covid market growth to slow through to 2026 due to falling inflation, lower trade volumes, the potential impact of the Basel IV Accord on bank demand, increasing self-insurance given low loss ratios and competitive pricing.

Estimated Credit and Political Risk market growth (change in premium volume) over the period 2022–2024.
Source: 九色视频Market Survey 2025.

Respondents reported that market loss ratios had remained benign overall, although Political Risk and Contract Frustration loss activity had increased (e.g., Ghana, Zambia, Niger, Russia and Ukraine). 90% of respondents expected loss ratios to deteriorate in coming years, primarily as normal (pre-Covid) insolvency levels had not yet been reached.

“60% of the survey respondents observed substantial, steady growth in overall Credit, Political Risk and Contract Frustration market premium volume from 2022 to 2024. Key growth drivers included inflationary pressures, economic recovery and increased demand from banks.”

Reflecting the long-term profitability of the sector, 100% of respondents with a global view reported substantial capacity increases in the market, with the majority expecting this to stabilise through to 2026. In addition to increasing loss ratios, rate pressures and (possible) over-expansions, respondents highlighted distribution issues including long lead times for new clients and talent shortages as limitations for future market growth.

Market terms and conditions had tightened for Political Risk and Contract Frustration alongside increasing loss activity. Otherwise, terms and conditions had weakened, driven by low loss ratios, increased capacity and banks requiring the removal of exclusions, e.g., nuclear exclusions, when using insurance for capital relief.

2022-24: Excellent Surety loss ratios attract new capacity

The majority of survey respondents reported substantial post-Covid (2022-2024) growth in Surety premium volume, highlighting the key drivers of inflation, Covid stimulus packages, economic recovery, infrastructure investment, recapturing lost business from when Covid struck, and an enhanced ability to capture bank business. The majority expected Surety market growth to continue. The survey also revealed how political and economic drivers can substantially impact Surety business – political tensions, for example, were reported to have reduced exposure in Peru and increased market selectivity in Chile.

50% of respondents reported that Surety market loss ratios had deteriorated post-Covid. However, overall, loss ratios remained stable and at generally low levels. Plenty of capacity was available in the market - 71% of respondents had observed an increase. Furthermore, Surety terms and conditions had become more flexible and rates were mostly falling, even though economic risks were rising.

2022-24: Impact of geopolitical tensions described as manageable

73% of respondents had experienced no impact on their business volume from geopolitical tensions, although selectivity had increased and the market pull-out from Russia was continuing. The situation at the time of the survey – even though there had been losses and more were expected – was described as manageable and within the range of acceptable volatility. Adding insights, respondents commented that business had shifted to other regions, that supply chain disruption is taken into account in risk assessments and managed globally, and that penetration was very low, hence there was significant global growth potential.

2025 tariff impact – so far, markets calm and optimistic

In the survey’s June 2025 webinar discussion, panelists described this as yet another global shock that will be a major disruptor to global trade and business and investor confidence. However, to-date, no major market impacts were reported. Panelists spoke of resilience on the client side -– businesses are adjusting, many have well-loaded balance sheets and governments are stepping in to mitigate the risks. They also highlighted that the Credit and Surety sector is keeping its cool – monitoring, not pre-empting, the impacts. Depending on shifting trade patterns, selectivity could increase. US Surety demand could fall given elevated economic uncertainty combined with public spending cuts. In a higher economic risk environment, market demand could explode, but it hasn’t done so yet. New customer segments could emerge. All-in-all, at the time of writing, a quietly optimistic, wait-and-see market approach prevails.