Cargo theft remains a significant concern for the logistics and supply chain industries, and its on the rise. Verisk’s , an 8% increase, in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, and a 13% year-over-year jump from Q2 2024, continuing an upward trend from 2024.
Historically, cargo theft involved physical force—breaking locks, hijacking trucks, or stealing from warehouses during off-hours. These tactics still happen but are now complemented or replaced by advanced techniques utilizing technology. Criminal groups exploit systemic trust in digital platforms, personnel, and procedures to execute thefts with minimal physical confrontation.
Understanding these emerging threats is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies and ensuring supply chain resilience.
Targeted goods and shifting hotspots
Thieves tend to follow market demand, targeting high-value electronics, pharmaceuticals, luxury goods, and items that are easy to fence and hard to trace. Recent trends include thefts of:
- Food and beverages (resold easily, with less traceability)
- Automotive parts (especially catalytic converters and EV batteries)
- Construction materials (copper wire, lumber, steel)
- Household goods and appliances, including baby formula and cleaning supplies
CargoNet’s most recent data showed a significant increase in metals theft, a 96% surge year over year. With metals like copper trading at record highs, this surge suggests that organized crime groups adjust their targets based on market values.
Geographically, cargo theft hotspots are expanding beyond ports and border crossings to regional warehouses, rural transfer points, and secondary logistics hubs. As companies decentralize operations to avoid congestion, criminals follow, targeting less secure locations. In 2024, incidents involving last-mile deliveries and small trailers increased, reflecting these new tactics and locations.
Cybercrime and insider threats
The intersection of cybercrime and cargo theft is an emerging concern. Hackers target transportation management systems (TMS) and warehouse platforms to access sensitive data—shipment schedules, cargo details, routes, and security protocols. Ransomware attacks can cause operational disruptions, creating opportunities for physical theft.
Cyber threats include:
- Phishing to hijack broker or carrier accounts
- Data scraping from unsecured freight platforms
- GPS spoofing to redirect or disguise vehicle locations
Insider threats—employees, drivers, or third-party partners—also play a significant role. Some insiders leak information, divert shipments, or collude with organized crime groups. Their access to critical systems and facilities makes managing third-party risk vital in cargo security.
Risks to a more connected supply chain
The digital transformation of the supply chain introduces new attack surfaces. Legacy documentation workflows—such as unsecured PDFs and printed Bills of Lading—are vulnerable to manipulation. Weak access controls across warehouse systems, Transportation Management Systems (TMS), and partner portals further expose vulnerabilities. Manual processes and single-point approvals create procedural gaps that criminals can exploit.
Impersonation tactics have become more convincing, aided by AI-generated voice and video. Criminals can convincingly impersonate company representatives, dispatchers, or executives via phone calls or forged PDFs, manipulating critical shipment decisions. This digital deception can lead to cargo loss before physical security measures even come into play.
AI-generated content—deepfakes, synthetic voices, forged documentation—has become a major concern. These tools lower the barrier for less technically skilled actors to carry out complex impersonation schemes, significantly increasing the success rate of theft operations that can be executed remotely and discreetly.
While physical security remains vital, it is no longer sufficient alone. The digital vulnerabilities create a broad attack surface demanding a holistic, layered security approach that includes robust digital safeguards alongside physical measures.
Modern cargo theft demands a defense-in-depth approach that combines physical, digital, and procedural safeguards. No single measure eliminates risk; their integration significantly reduces vulnerabilities.
Emerging threats
Emerging threats to logistics encompass a range of sophisticated cyber and physical tactics that have been observed in real-world scenarios. For instance, synthetic freight broker scams and identity redirection have led to significant financial losses, such as a $1 million shipment of smart toys being diverted across the U.S. through fake broker credentials. Similarly, GPS jamming and spoofing are increasingly deployed by criminals to disrupt cargo tracking, with confirmed cases in North America involving high-value electronics and pharmaceuticals targeted for theft. The use of AI-generated document fraud and load board manipulation further complicates security, often involving falsified bills of lading and broker identities across multiple countries. Insider-driven theft remains a critical concern, with reports indicating that approximately , highlighting vulnerabilities within supply chain personnel.
On the strategic front, military and geopolitical threats are increasing. Incidents such as state-sponsored cyber activities targeting border infrastructure have highlighted vulnerabilities in military logistics, including aid shipments. GPS spoofing and jamming remain concerns for civil and military navigation systems, particularly in contested regions, potentially disrupting critical operations.
Securing cargo like data
Industry experts recommend treating physical cargo security with the same rigor as data security. This includes implementing encryption, authentication, and real-time shipment visibility. Layered verification—such as multi-factor authentication, chain-of-custody tracking, and strict access controls—is vital to prevent unauthorized access and tampering.
Modern cargo theft demands a defense-in-depth approach that combines physical, digital, and procedural safeguards. No single measure eliminates risk; their integration significantly reduces vulnerabilities.
Key components of a layered defense for cargo security include:
- Digital and Physical Perimeter Hardening: Implement robust access controls including two-factor authentication for digital systems, secure digital access points, and IoT-based real-time monitoring solutions such as GPS tracking, geofencing, intrusion detection, and tamper alarms. Enhance physical security with surveillance cameras, motion detectors, high-security locks, fencing, and well-lit, surveilled facilities. Secure vehicle locks, including kingpin locks, and optimize route planning to avoid high-risk areas and limit overnight stops.
- Verified Documentation, Chain of Custody, and Identity Verification: Ensure all inventory movements are logged with digital signatures, timestamps, and chain-of-custody tracking to maintain transparency and accountability. Establish rigorous vetting procedures for carriers, brokers, and subcontractors by verifying credentials such as DOT/MC numbers, insurance, and business credentials through trusted networks and screening tools like Carrier411 or DAT Onboard. Avoid last-minute bookings during weekends or holidays.
- Operational Discipline, Training, and Cybersecurity: Conduct comprehensive security training for employees and drivers to recognize social engineering tactics, verify identities, and report suspicious activity. Educate personnel on cybersecurity best practices, including multi-factor authentication, regular software updates, vulnerability management, phishing awareness, and incident response planning. Segment networks to restrict access to sensitive systems.
- Incident Response, Escalation, and Threat Intelligence: Develop clear protocols for responding to security breaches, including communication channels, escalation procedures, and recovery steps. Collaborate with industry associations, law enforcement, and cargo theft task forces to share intelligence, stay ahead of emerging tactics, and adapt security measures proactively.
Final thoughts
Cargo insurance is vital for effective loss mitigation. Regularly reviewing coverage limits, exclusions, and security requirements ensures policies provide adequate protection against theft. For high-value or high-risk cargo, specialized coverage is recommended.
Many insurance providers now offer risk engineering services, including security assessments, planning, and technology recommendations. Incentives like discounts for GPS tracking, tamper alarms, and secure storage encourage best practices. Keeping detailed records of security procedures and incidents enhances claims processing and demonstrates proactive risk management.
In 2025, cargo theft is driven by strategic, technology-enabled operations that target systemic vulnerabilities. Traditional physical security measures remain important but are no longer sufficient alone. Organizations must adopt a comprehensive approach—integrating digital safeguards, physical security, staff training, and industry collaboration.
The evolving threat landscape requires ongoing vigilance, innovation, and a proactive mindset. Building resilience through layered defenses and a strong security culture is essential to protect assets, maintain supply chain integrity, and uphold trust with customers and partners.
By staying ahead of criminal tactics and fostering a resilient security posture, organizations can better navigate the complexities of modern logistics and defend against increasingly sophisticated cargo theft threats.
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